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There is a very modern moment that happens to many of us. You feel something difficult, maybe a heavy sadness that will not lift, maybe a tightness in your chest that shows up every Sunday night, maybe an emptiness that makes your home feel louder than usual. You look for language. You search for answers. You want to know what is happening to you.
And within minutes, the internet hands you a diagnosis shaped like certainty.
Sometimes that certainty is a relief. A name can reduce shame. A framework can connect you to care. A diagnosis can become a doorway to support you have needed for a long time.
But there is another side to the story, one we rarely talk about in a calm way. Sometimes diagnostic language can land too early, too broadly, too confidently. Sometimes what you are feeling is not a disorder. Sometimes it is grief doing what grief does. Sometimes it is stress responding to overload. Sometimes it is the nervous system saying, in its own stubborn body language, “This is too much.”
This is where the idea of prevalence inflation enters the conversation. It is not a denial of suffering. It is not a claim that mental illness is “made up.” It is a careful question about measurement, meaning, and thresholds. A 2023 paper by Lucy Foulkes and Jack L. Andrews described what they call the prevalence inflation hypothesis, proposing that mental health awareness efforts can lead to better recognition of real problems, but may also encourage some people to interpret milder distress as mental health problems, potentially inflating reported prevalence.
In a Calm Space tone, we can hold this gently:
- Your pain is real.
- Your pain deserves care.
- And your pain does not always require a diagnosis to be legitimate.
This article is written for readers who want nuance without coldness. We will look at why mental health “rates” can appear to rise. We will explore the difference between normal pain and clinical disorder patterns without minimizing either. We will talk about screening tools, self labeling, social media, and shifting diagnostic boundaries, all while keeping one promise: we will not treat you like a statistic.
Take one slow breath with me before we begin. Not to perform wellness. Just to create a little space around the urge to label yourself too quickly.
The core idea: What “prevalence inflation” means in plain english
Prevalence is how common something is in a population. Prevalence inflation means reported rates can rise for reasons that are not simply “more illness exists now than before.”
Inflation can happen when the way we define, detect, and report distress changes. Think of it like turning up the sensitivity on a smoke alarm. A more sensitive alarm can save lives by catching real danger earlier. But it can also go off while you are making toast, flooding the room with panic and convincing you there is a fire when there is only heat.
That is not an argument against smoke alarms. It is an argument for calibration.
Foulkes and Andrews suggest two mechanisms that can coexist: better recognition of previously overlooked symptoms, and overinterpretation of milder distress as a mental health problem. The first mechanism is compassionate and needed. The second mechanism is the one that can quietly distort prevalence estimates and personal identity.
When prevalence inflation happens, it can shape culture in ways that matter for everyday life:
- It can make normal pain feel medically suspicious.
- It can make you fear your feelings instead of learning from them.
- It can overload mental health services with false positives, while those with severe conditions still struggle to access care.
None of this means you should dismiss yourself. It means you deserve a better map.
Why “rates are rising” can mean more than one thing
When people say “mental health rates are rising,” they often mix different kinds of numbers together. Those numbers are not interchangeable, and when they get blended into one headline, confusion grows.
Here is a clearer view.
| What is being counted? | How it is often measured | Why it can look higher over time |
|---|---|---|
| Diagnosed disorders | Medical records, clinical coding, insurance claims | Access changes, coding practices shift, thresholds evolve |
| Symptoms above a cutoff | Questionnaires such as PHQ 9 or GAD 7 | Screening tools are not diagnoses, cutoffs can overcount |
| Self identified “I have X” | Surveys, self report, social media identity language | Diagnostic language spreads fast, nuance spreads slower |
That middle row is a big deal. Many public discussions about how common depression or anxiety is in a population are based on questionnaire cutoffs. But a cutoff is not a diagnosis. It is a signal.
A large individual participant data meta analysis found that using the common PHQ 9 cutoff of 10 or above can substantially overestimate depression prevalence compared with diagnostic interviews.
Another major BMJ individual participant data meta analysis on PHQ 9 accuracy emphasizes that predictive values depend on prevalence and that a positive screen does not automatically mean the person has major depression.
This is not about proving that distress is “not real.” It is about noticing a measurement trap: when the tool is treated as the truth, prevalence can inflate.
The quiet forces that inflate prevalence without anyone lying
Prevalence inflation rarely happens because someone is intentionally manipulating numbers. It happens because multiple shifts, each reasonable on its own, stack together.
1) The boundary of “disorder” expands
Diagnostic systems evolve. Criteria are revised. New conditions are added. Thresholds shift. That can be clinically beneficial, especially for people who were previously excluded from care.
But it can also broaden the net so far that ordinary hardship starts to look like pathology.
A 2021 paper by Nick Haslam discusses concept creep and psychiatrization, describing how harm related concepts can expand both horizontally into new domains and vertically into less extreme experiences, clarifying benefits and costs of this expansion.
In human terms, the word “disorder” can begin to function less like a precise clinical tool and more like a cultural metaphor for pain.
2) Screening becomes diagnosis by accident
Screening tools are designed to catch possible cases, not to confirm them. Their strength is sensitivity. Their weakness is false positives.
The Austrian Institute for Health Technology Assessment produced a 2024 report on mental health screening in primary care that focuses on evidence, methods, and implementation implications, including the importance of pathways and potential downsides of screening at scale.
If you have ever taken a screening test online and felt your stomach drop when you scored “moderate” or “severe,” you already understand the psychological weight of a false positive.
3) Mental health literacy grows, and so does symptom interpretation
Awareness can reduce stigma and increase help seeking. That is real and valuable.
But awareness can also shape how people interpret normal stress responses. Foulkes and Andrews explicitly call for testing whether awareness efforts might paradoxically contribute to rising reported problems through increased overinterpretation of milder distress.
4) Self labeling becomes identity, and identity changes the nervous system
Labels are not neutral. They change how you pay attention. They change what you expect. They change which sensations you treat as dangerous.
A longitudinal study of youth found that adopting a mental illness self label predicted decreased self esteem, while dropping a self label predicted increased self esteem.
This does not mean labels are always harmful. It means labels can be psychologically powerful, and power needs care.

The toast alarm problem: Why more sensitivity can feel like more sickness
Let’s take the smoke alarm metaphor one step further, because it maps onto prevalence inflation in a strangely comforting way.
If your smoke alarm is too insensitive, it might not go off during a real fire. That is dangerous.
If your smoke alarm is too sensitive, it goes off constantly. You start to dread cooking. You start avoiding the kitchen. You start believing the house is unsafe, even when it is not.
That is how overinterpretation can work in mental health culture. If every stress response becomes “anxiety disorder,” you may become afraid of your own adrenaline. If every sadness wave becomes “depression,” you may become afraid of normal emotional gravity. If every memory sting becomes “trauma,” you may become afraid of remembering.
Fear of feelings can intensify feelings.
This is one reason prevalence inflation matters as a lived experience, not just as an academic debate.
When measurement inflates prevalence: The PHQ 9 example without cold math
The PHQ 9 is widely used and genuinely helpful in many contexts. But it is often misused as a prevalence estimator.
Here is a calm way to understand what the research is pointing to.
| What a screening cutoff is good at | What a screening cutoff is not built to do |
|---|---|
| Flag people who might need a closer look | Determine who “has depression” in a population |
| Support clinical monitoring over time | Replace a structured diagnostic interview |
| Open a conversation about symptoms | Tell you why the symptoms are happening |
A 2020 Journal of Clinical Epidemiology individual participant data meta analysis concluded that PHQ 9 scores of 10 or above substantially overestimate depression prevalence.
A 2019 BMJ individual participant data meta analysis provides detailed analysis of PHQ 9 accuracy and emphasizes the complexity of predictive values and false positives, especially when prevalence is not high.
If you are a reader who has ever “screened positive” and then felt labeled, I want to say this plainly:
A screening result is not a verdict.
It is an invitation to get context.
Context includes sleep, burnout, grief, illness, medication effects, loneliness, relationship safety, and financial stress. Human life has many ways to create symptoms that look psychiatric.
The social media effect: When diagnostic language becomes a lifestyle
There is nothing wrong with learning about mental health online. For many people, it has been the first place they ever heard words like dissociation, rumination, or panic attack. It has helped people seek care sooner. It has helped people feel less alone.
But online spaces reward clarity, speed, and emotional punch. Nuance is slower. Nuance is less shareable. Nuance does not always go viral.
Newer research is documenting how social media can shape diagnostic desire and self diagnosis patterns. A 2025 study on youth entering mental health treatment reported that young adults often used information from social media to self diagnose and that diagnosis was viewed as important, with social media use associated with self diagnosis and valuing diagnosis.
A qualitative study analyzing attitudes toward self diagnosis in Reddit discussions also reflects the cultural tensions around expertise, validation, and consequences of diagnostic identity.
This is not about blaming social media users. It is about acknowledging an environment where mental health language can become a fast identity kit.
When diagnosis becomes identity first and treatment plan second, prevalence inflation can rise, and so can personal stuckness.
A story we need to tell with more care: Grief and prolonged grief disorder
Nothing exposes the line between normal pain and pathology more delicately than grief.
Grief can knock you down. Grief can make you forget words. Grief can change your appetite, your sleep, your memory, your relationship to time. Grief can be so intense it feels like illness.
And still, grief can be normal.
In recent years, Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) has been included in major diagnostic systems. This can be helpful for people whose grief becomes persistent, impairing, and stuck in a way that needs specialized treatment. It can also open doors to care.
At the same time, it raises the prevalence inflation question: when a new category is formalized, prevalence can shift because the naming system shifted.
The World Health Organization notes that ICD 11 was adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2019 and came into effect on January 1, 2022.
DSM 5 TR was published in 2022 under the American Psychiatric Association, and an overview of changes is discussed in a 2022 paper by First.
Now notice what happens when systems differ: the same name, different criteria details, different time thresholds, different required symptoms, and therefore different prevalence estimates.
A 2024 Frontiers in Psychiatry paper directly examined differences in prevalence and criteria for PGD in ICD 11 and DSM 5 TR, highlighting variation in diagnostic approach and prevalence estimation depending on algorithm choices.
An additional 2023 paper discusses controversies and challenges around PGD in ICD 11 and DSM 5 TR.
Here is a simplified comparison, written for human understanding rather than technical debate.
| Dimension | ICD 11 PGD (broadly described) | DSM 5 TR PGD (broadly described) | Why this matters for prevalence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time threshold | Uses a shorter minimum period in many discussions, with cultural context emphasized | Uses a longer minimum period for adults | Shorter thresholds can identify cases sooner but may include more people |
| Symptom approach | Emphasizes core symptoms plus additional symptoms | Specifies criteria with structured requirements | Different symptom sets can lead to different case counts |
| Cultural framing | Explicit attention to cultural norms of grieving | Cultural context included, but structured criteria can dominate | Culture changes what is “expected,” affecting who is counted |
This is not a verdict on PGD. It is an example of a broader pattern: when criteria change, prevalence changes, even if human experience stays the same.
If you are grieving, you do not need to earn legitimacy through diagnosis. You deserve support because grief is love with nowhere to go, and sometimes it needs company.
A calm, practical distinction: Normal pain versus clinical disorder patterns
The most helpful question is not “Is this real?” Your pain is real.
A better question is: “Is this a normal pain response that needs support, or a clinical pattern that needs structured treatment, or both?”
Normal pain can be severe. Clinical disorder can be understandable. The difference is not moral. The difference is pattern, duration, impairment, and risk.
Here is a grounded guide, not a diagnostic tool, but a way to orient.
| Dimension | Normal pain often looks like | Clinical disorder patterns more often look like |
|---|---|---|
| Relationship to context | Connected to a clear stressor, change, loss, or environment | Can persist beyond the stressor, or appear without a clear trigger |
| Emotional movement | Comes in waves, with moments of relief or softening | Feels pervasive, rigid, or stuck most days |
| Functioning | Hard, but some basic tasks remain possible | Significant impairment in work, relationships, self care, sleep |
| Time | Shifts gradually with support and meaning making | Persists, worsens, or narrows life over weeks or months |
| Risk and safety | Distress without significant risk behaviors | Suicidal ideation, self harm, severe withdrawal, inability to stay safe |
If you see yourself in the right column, that is not a failure. That is information. It might mean you deserve more support than self help alone can provide.
Where prevalence inflation gets personal: The identity trap
A label can be a bridge to treatment. It can also become a story that shrinks you.
Here is the trap in arrow form:
Distress → label → identity fusion → hypervigilance → avoidance → increased symptoms → stronger identity fusion
This is one of the reasons the self labeling finding in youth matters. If adopting a self label is associated with decreased self esteem over time, that is a signal that labels can interact with identity in ways that are not always healing.
In Calm Space terms, you want the label to be a tool you hold, not a room you live in.
So if you have a diagnosis, you can try this gentle reframe:
- “I have a diagnosis” can be clinically useful.
- “I am my diagnosis” can be psychologically confining.

The awareness paradox: When education helps and hurts at the same time
This is where nuance matters most.
Awareness campaigns can reduce stigma and improve help seeking. A 2024 systematic review of media mental health awareness campaigns for young people examined impacts on attitudes and outcomes and highlights both potential benefits and evaluation challenges.
At the same time, Foulkes and Andrews argue it is worth testing whether some awareness efforts may increase reported problems through mechanisms like overinterpretation.
Both can be true in the same culture.
Awareness can save lives.
And awareness can also teach people to fear normal feelings.
That is why the best mental health education does not stop at symptom lists. It includes coping skills, emotional literacy, and context, so people learn how to be with feelings instead of turning them into diagnoses immediately.
A nonconventional lens: The three instruments we confuse
When distress shows up, we often use the wrong instrument to read it.
Think of three different instruments:
- A thermometer measures intensity.
- A compass measures direction.
- A microscope measures detail.
Many mental health conversations use the microscope when we need the compass.
If you zoom in on symptoms, you will always find something. Humans are complicated. You can zoom into anyone’s thoughts and find anxiety, sadness, insecurity, obsession, avoidance, irritation, numbness. Zooming in does not automatically reveal pathology. It reveals humanity.
Sometimes what you need first is the compass question:
Where is this pain pointing?
- Is it pointing to overload?
- Is it pointing to loneliness?
- Is it pointing to an unsafe relationship dynamic?
- Is it pointing to a body that is under slept and over caffeinated?
- Is it pointing to a life that is too small for your needs?
Diagnosis can be helpful, but often after meaning.
A calm space pathway: How to hold pain without turning it into a cage
Here is a pathway you can practice when you feel the urge to label yourself in the heat of distress. It is not about avoiding clinical care. It is about choosing sequence.
Sensation → Emotion → Need → Support → Meaning → Clinical assessment if needed
To make it easier to use, here is the same pathway as a table you can return to.
| Step | What to ask | What it prevents |
|---|---|---|
| Sensation | What is happening in my body right now | Immediate catastrophic interpretation |
| Emotion | What is the feeling word, not the diagnosis word | Overmedicalizing emotional language |
| Need | What is the unmet need under this feeling | Treating pain as random or shameful |
| Support | What support fits this level of distress today | Isolation and self blaming |
| Meaning | What story am I telling about what this means | Identity fusion with symptoms |
| Assessment | If persistent or impairing, do I need clinical evaluation | Delayed care when it is truly needed |
This pathway does something quietly radical. It gives you permission to respond to pain before you declare what the pain “is.”
Why screening at scale can create system level inflation
Imagine a healthcare system with limited clinicians and a population under strain. Add widespread screening without clear care pathways. You can create a wave of positive screens that require follow up. Some of those will be true positives, people who need help and deserve it. Some will be false positives, people who are distressed but not disordered, and who may become more anxious after being flagged.
The 2024 AIHTA report focuses on evidence and implications of screening programs, and it emphasizes the need for clearly defined pathways linking detection to appropriate treatment.
Inflation here is not just a number. It is an experience.
It is the experience of being told you might have something, then waiting months for confirmation, then living in a diagnostic limbo that can worsen distress.
The line we want to protect: Validating pain without medicalizing it
There is a cultural habit that needs healing: the habit of treating diagnosis as the only proof that pain is worthy of care.
In Calm Space language, I want to say this clearly:
- You do not need a diagnosis to deserve tenderness.
- You do not need a disorder to deserve rest.
- You do not need pathology to deserve help.
And also:
If your suffering is persistent, impairing, or dangerous, you deserve evidence based treatment without shame.
Prevalence inflation discussions become harmful when people use them to dismiss suffering. They become helpful when people use them to improve precision and compassion at the same time.
How to talk to a clinician without getting flattened by labels
If you decide to seek professional support, you can ask questions that protect you from premature labeling while still honoring your pain.
You can say something like this:
“I took a screening questionnaire and it worried me. Can we explore what this score can and cannot tell us, and look at context, functioning, duration, and risk before we decide on a label?”
You can also ask:
“How will a diagnosis guide treatment, and how will we prevent it from becoming my identity?”
That is not confrontational. That is informed care.
A calm space reflection
If you are reading this because you have been wondering whether you are broken, I want to offer you a softer possibility:
- Maybe you are not broken.
- Maybe you are overloaded.
- Maybe you are grieving.
- Maybe you are lonely in a way your body cannot ignore anymore.
- Maybe your nervous system is doing its best to protect you, even if its methods are clumsy.
Prevalence inflation is not a reason to distrust mental health care. It is a reason to use it wisely.
It is a reason to protect the difference between normal pain and clinical disorder patterns, not because normal pain is small, but because normal pain is human, and humans deserve compassion that does not require pathology.
If you are in immediate danger, or you are having thoughts of harming yourself, please seek urgent help in your area right now.
Related posts You’ll love
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- The ugly art practice: Make something bad on purpose to calm down
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FAQ: Prevalence inflation and pathologizing normal pain
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What is prevalence inflation in mental health?
Prevalence inflation is the idea that reported mental health “rates” can increase partly because the way we define, measure, and talk about symptoms changes over time, not only because more people are actually developing disorders. When screening questionnaires, broader criteria, and self-labeling become more common, the number of people counted as “cases” can rise. This does not mean suffering is fake; it means the measurement lens can widen, and a wider lens can make distress look more like disorder.
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Are we pathologizing normal pain?
Sometimes, yes, especially when everyday emotional reactions are treated as medical problems by default. Normal pain includes grief, heartbreak, disappointment, stress, and fear that make sense given what you’re living through. Pathologizing happens when those experiences are interpreted as disorders without considering context, duration, impairment, and risk. The calmer middle path is this: your pain can be valid and serious without automatically being a diagnosis.
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Why do mental health “rates” look like they’re rising?
Rising rates can reflect several overlapping factors: more awareness and willingness to report symptoms, better access to services, changes in diagnostic criteria, more screening, and broader cultural use of clinical language. When more people are asked about symptoms and more people recognize themselves in symptom descriptions, more people will answer “yes.” That can be a positive shift toward openness, but it can also inflate prevalence estimates if mild or temporary distress is counted the same as clinically impairing conditions.
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Is sadness the same as depression?
Sadness is an emotion. Depression is a clinical pattern that usually includes persistence over time, loss of interest or pleasure, and meaningful impairment in daily functioning. Sadness tends to move in waves and often responds to support, rest, or changes in circumstances. Depression is more likely to feel stuck, pervasive, and disabling. You can feel deep sadness and still not be depressed, and you can be depressed for understandable reasons. The key question is not “Is my sadness real?” It is “Is my life narrowing, and is my functioning steadily collapsing?”
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Is stress the same as an anxiety disorder?
Stress is a normal response to overload, pressure, or uncertainty. An anxiety disorder is more than being anxious; it’s a persistent pattern where fear, worry, bodily arousal, avoidance, and impairment keep reinforcing each other even when the situation changes. A helpful way to tell the difference is to look at flexibility. Stress often eases when the load eases. Anxiety disorders often remain sticky, and the fear of fear becomes part of the problem. The body can be loud in both cases, but the long-term pattern is what matters.
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Are online mental health tests accurate?
Online tests are usually screening tools, not diagnostic tools. They can help you notice symptoms and start a conversation, but they can’t tell you why symptoms are happening or whether they meet full clinical criteria. A high score can reflect burnout, grief, sleep deprivation, chronic stress, illness, or loneliness, not only a disorder. A more accurate next step is: score → context → functioning → duration → professional evaluation if needed. Think of it as a signal, not a sentence.
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How does social media influence self-diagnosis?
Social media can increase mental health literacy and reduce stigma, which can be genuinely helpful. But it also tends to simplify complex criteria into fast, relatable content that can blur normal experiences and clinical conditions. When people repeatedly interpret their feelings through diagnostic labels, attention can narrow, identity can fuse with symptoms, and avoidance can increase. The healthiest approach is to use online content like a library for understanding, not a machine that assigns you a diagnosis in 30 seconds.
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What is “concept creep” and why does it matter?
Concept creep refers to psychological and harm-related terms expanding over time to include a wider range of experiences, sometimes including milder ones. This can be compassionate, because it recognizes suffering that was previously minimized. But it can also create confusion by making almost any distress sound clinical. If every discomfort becomes “trauma” and every worry becomes “anxiety disorder,” the words lose precision. Precision matters because the right language helps you choose the right kind of support.
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When is a diagnosis helpful, not harmful?
A diagnosis is most helpful when it expands options: access to treatment, clarity in a care plan, accommodations, and relief from shame. It becomes less helpful when it turns into a fixed identity that narrows your sense of possibility. A useful guiding line is: diagnosis as a tool → supportive; diagnosis as a cage → harmful. You want language that helps you heal, not language that makes your future feel predetermined.
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When should I seek professional help for normal pain?
Seek help when distress is persistent, escalating, or impairing your ability to function, even if the trigger is “understandable.” If you can’t sleep for weeks, can’t eat, can’t work, can’t connect, or feel your world shrinking, support is appropriate. Also seek help immediately if there is any risk of self-harm, suicidal thoughts, or inability to stay safe. Normal pain can still require professional care, not because it is “a disorder,” but because you deserve support that matches the weight you’re carrying.
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How can I talk to a clinician without getting stuck in labels?
You can ask for an assessment that prioritizes context and functioning before naming. A simple approach is to say: “I’m experiencing these symptoms, and I want to understand what they mean in my situation. Can we look at duration, impairment, triggers, and risks before deciding on a label?” You can also ask how any diagnosis would guide treatment and how you can avoid over-identifying with it. The goal is a collaborative plan, not a label that replaces your story.
Sources and inspirations
- Armstrong, S., Osuch, E., Wammes, M., Chevalier, O., Kieffer, S., Meddaoui, M., & Rice, L. (2025). Self diagnosis in the age of social media: A pilot study of youth entering mental health treatment for mood and anxiety disorders. Acta Psychologica.
- Eisma, M. C. (2023). Prolonged grief disorder in ICD 11 and DSM 5 TR: Challenges and controversies. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry.
- First, M. B. (2022). DSM 5 TR: Overview of what’s new and what’s changed. World Psychiatry.
- Foulkes, L., & Andrews, J. L. (2023). Are mental health awareness efforts contributing to the rise in reported mental health problems? A call to test the prevalence inflation hypothesis. New Ideas in Psychology.
- Harari, L., Oselin, S. S., & Link, B. G. (2023). The power of self labels: Examining self esteem consequences for youth with mental health problems. Journal of Health and Social Behavior.
- Haslam, N. (2021). Concept creep and psychiatrization. Frontiers in Sociology.
- Kern, J., Reinsperger, I., & Hofer, V. (2024). Mental health screening of adults in primary care (AIHTA Project Report No. 159). Austrian Institute for Health Technology Assessment.
- Levis, B., Benedetti, A., Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Thombs, B. D., (2020). Patient Health Questionnaire 9 scores do not accurately estimate depression prevalence: Individual participant data meta analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.
- Levis, B., Negeri, Z. F., Sun, Y., Benedetti, A., & Thombs, B. D., (2019). Accuracy of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ 9) for screening to detect major depression: Individual participant data meta analysis. The BMJ.
- Tam, M. T., Wu, J. M., Zhang, C. C., Pawliuk, C., & Robillard, J. M. (2024). A systematic review of the impacts of media mental health awareness campaigns on young people. Health Promotion Practice.
- Treml, J., Linde, K., Brähler, E., & Kersting, A. (20
- 24). Prolonged grief disorder in ICD 11 and DSM 5 TR: Differences in prevalence and diagnostic criteria. Frontiers in Psychiatry.
- Underhill, R., & Foulkes, L. (2025). Self diagnosis of mental disorders: A qualitative study of attitudes on Reddit. Qualitative Health Research.
- World Health Organization. (2019). ICD 11 adoption by the World Health Assembly and entry into force on 1 January 2022.
- World Health Organization. (2022). WHO’s new International Classification of Diseases (ICD 11) comes into effect.





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